In a little less than two weeks the United States will elect a new president. I am going to write a series of a few posts specifically about the election itself.

For the first post, I am going to write about how I think that the election will play out. This is based mainly off polling data from Real Clear Politics.

I think that even after the recent letter from the director of the FBI to obtain a warrant to go through more emails sent by and to Hilary Clinton’s aid, some in the mainstream press are being a bit naïve. Some people in the establishment are still thinking that Hilary’s victory is an inevitability. Based on the numbers, it isn’t. That comes from the data. The numbers shouldn’t be ignored.

My general prediction about this election is that it is going to be unprecedentedly close. I think that Trump will win a significant amount of states, and send the entire establishment into a shock. I think this election will easily be won or lost for Clinton based on just a few million votes and maybe one state’s electoral college votes.

Even at this point, based on the polling data, I would still give Clinton a slight advantage. I think that just based on the progressive lean of Americans on various issues based on polling data from places like Public Policy Polling, a democrat would have a slight advantage. But this is going to be close in the general election.

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